Why should you believe what I write? I am not an expert in politics. I am not a journalist, nor a politician. But I do have some understanding of what drives people when they make a choice, such as buying – or voting.

Every writer has an agenda, and mine is to gain peace from reflection. So ignore this if you wish – I’m not selling or campaigning. Unlike every other writer you will read on this election.

And that is exactly the point. People believe they have free will. Maybe they do. But we only believe something, or believe in something, because someone told us so – or showed us. That belief gets built up and reinforced over a long time, and is very hard to change once it is established as someone’s reality. The public may be fickle – but at the same time their view of the world is fairly unshakeable. It’s a result of constant reinforcement.

So keep asking ‘why do I/you believe that?’ and, like me, you may come to these conclusions:

1. All political commentary is biased (selective, emotive) and designed to make the audience react (yes, even the ‘impartial’ BBC). The message, its framing and delivery is expertly tailored to the advantage of the media outlet – not for the information and education of the audience, and without care for accuracy or consequences. This is probably less due to the political views of the individual journalist than you might think, and more to do with the editorial culture of the organisation.
2. A majority of the electorate was led to feel extremely uncomfortable with the idea of Corbyn in number 10 (the person – nothing to do with his policies), ever since his selection as leader of the Labour party. (For reasons, see 1.)
3. Johnson had his share of ‘bad behaviour’ stories, and his demeanour has lately been distinctly unlikable, but his unpolished and ebullient delivery has long been portrayed positively by the media as making him relatable – this image is hard to shift from the mind. Corbyn comes across as awkward and somewhat aloof.
4. Brexit was used by the Conservatives as a key differentiator, and their messages were reliably parroted unchallenged by the media. This struck home with a significant chunk of voters, including enough traditional Labour voters (25% of previously Labour-supporting leave voters switched away from Labour) – ‘Boris will Get Brexit Done’ (he can’t), ‘Corbyn will dither and delay’ (no evidence of that), ‘Labour don’t have a clear Brexit policy’ (they do). Meanwhile, only 8% of Conservative remainers were convinced to vote for Corbyn. (Lord Ashcroft polls)
5. Voters now disposed to vote Conservative were more effectively motivated and mobilised. Why? Because what drives someone to cast a vote is a belief that it is necessary for their own wellbeing, over and above what that person would otherwise be doing. Whether down to policies or personalities, the voter must have the idea in their mind that taking the time to vote is more important than anything else, and that they see themselves doing it. On a rainy Thursday in December, enough of a fearful electorate had been sufficiently convinced that Corbyn was a threat worth voting to avoid, and that Johnson was the only one who would deliver what they thought they needed. (This also did for Swinson and Farage.)

This is a reflection on the moment. But the culture and motivations that led to voters’ choices are not likely to change soon. So expect more of the same. Bundoo out.